基于改进响应面方法的干树圆筒型FPSO顶张紧式立管干涉可靠性分析

任牧雨; 齐心宇; 邓景仁; 刘德鹏; 曹婷; 张玉

doi:10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

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装备环境工程 ›› 2026, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (10) : 15-27. DOI: 10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

专题——船舶与海洋工程装备理论分析与设计方法

基于改进响应面方法的干树圆筒型FPSO顶张紧式立管干涉可靠性分析

任牧雨, 齐心宇, 邓景仁, 刘德鹏, 曹婷, 张玉

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Reliability Analysis of Interference in Dry Tree Cylindrical FPSO Top-tension Risers Based on Improved Response Surface Method

REN Muyu, QI Xinyu, DENG Jingren, LIU Depeng, CAO Ting, ZHANG Yu

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摘要

目的提高干树圆筒型FPSO顶张紧式立管干涉失效边界附近的预测精度。方法建立平台-系泊-立管耦合模型,以最小间距为响应,采用极限状态驱动的自适应加权响应面与Monte Carlo方法进行可靠性分析。结果极限状态邻域平均相对误差由12.86%降至0.08%,经5次响应面迭代更新,失效概率估计稳定于0.022 27。与经典响应面方法相比,迭代收敛更快。初始间距、顶张力系数和系泊总长度为主要影响参数,失效概率在系泊总长度约2 350 m附近出现局部低值。结论在本文参数范围和组合环境工况下,增大初始间距、合理提高顶张力并匹配系泊参数有助于降低立管干涉风险。

Abstract

The work aims to improve prediction accuracy near the interference failure boundary of top-tension risers on a dry-tree cylindrical FPSO. A coupled platform-mooring-riser model was established, with the minimum riser spacing as the response. Reliability analysis was performed using a limit-state-driven adaptive weighted response surface method combined with Monte Carlo simulation. Results showed that the mean relative error near the limit state decreased from 12.86% to 0.08%. After five response surface updates, the estimated failure probability stabilized at 0.022 27, with faster iterative convergence than the classical response surface method. Initial riser spacing, top tension factor, and total mooring length were the main influencing parameters. A local minimum in failure probability occurred at a total mooring length of approximately 2 350 m. In conclusion, within the investigated parameter ranges and combined environmental conditions, increasing initial riser spacing, appropriately increasing top tension, and selecting suitable mooring parameters can help reduce the riser interference risk.

导出引用

任牧雨, 齐心宇, 邓景仁, 刘德鹏, 曹婷, 张玉. 基于改进响应面方法的干树圆筒型FPSO顶张紧式立管干涉可靠性分析[J]. 装备环境工程. 2026, 23(10): 15-27 https://doi.org/10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

REN Muyu, QI Xinyu, DENG Jingren, LIU Depeng, CAO Ting, ZHANG Yu. Reliability Analysis of Interference in Dry Tree Cylindrical FPSO Top-tension Risers Based on Improved Response Surface Method[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering. 2026, 23(10): 15-27 https://doi.org/10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

中图分类号： TE978

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