Reliability Analysis of Interference in Dry Tree Cylindrical FPSO Top-tension Risers Based on Improved Response Surface Method

REN Muyu; QI Xinyu; DENG Jingren; LIU Depeng; CAO Ting; ZHANG Yu

doi:10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

PDF(2967 KB)

Equipment Environmental Engineering ›› 2026, Vol. 23 ›› Issue (10) : 15-27. DOI: 10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

Special Topic——Theoretical Analysis and Design Methods for Ships and Ocean Engineering Equipment

Reliability Analysis of Interference in Dry Tree Cylindrical FPSO Top-tension Risers Based on Improved Response Surface Method

REN Muyu, QI Xinyu, DENG Jingren, LIU Depeng, CAO Ting, ZHANG Yu

Author information +

History +

Abstract

The work aims to improve prediction accuracy near the interference failure boundary of top-tension risers on a dry-tree cylindrical FPSO. A coupled platform-mooring-riser model was established, with the minimum riser spacing as the response. Reliability analysis was performed using a limit-state-driven adaptive weighted response surface method combined with Monte Carlo simulation. Results showed that the mean relative error near the limit state decreased from 12.86% to 0.08%. After five response surface updates, the estimated failure probability stabilized at 0.022 27, with faster iterative convergence than the classical response surface method. Initial riser spacing, top tension factor, and total mooring length were the main influencing parameters. A local minimum in failure probability occurred at a total mooring length of approximately 2 350 m. In conclusion, within the investigated parameter ranges and combined environmental conditions, increasing initial riser spacing, appropriately increasing top tension, and selecting suitable mooring parameters can help reduce the riser interference risk.

Key words

top-tension riser / dry-tree cylindrical FPSO / riser interference / reliability analysis / weighted response surface / limit state / Monte Carlo simulation

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

REN Muyu, QI Xinyu, DENG Jingren, LIU Depeng, CAO Ting, ZHANG Yu. Reliability Analysis of Interference in Dry Tree Cylindrical FPSO Top-tension Risers Based on Improved Response Surface Method[J]. Equipment Environmental Engineering. 2026, 23(10): 15-27 https://doi.org/10.7643/issn.1672-9242.2026.10.002

References

[1] BAI Y, BAI Q.Subsea Engineering Handbook[M]. Oxford; Burlington: Gulf Professional Publishing, 2010.
[2] CHAKRABARTI S.Handbook of Offshore Engineering[M]. Amsterdam: Elsevier, 2005.
[3] YIN D C, WU J, LIE H, et al.Wave Effects on Vortex-Induced Vibrations of a Top-Tensioned Riser[J]. Journal of Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, 2023, 145(4): 041901.
[4] 石云, 周晓东, 曹静, 等. 波流作用下的张力腿平台顶张紧式立管干涉分析[J]. 海洋工程装备与技术, 2015, 2(2): 84-87.
SHI Y, ZHOU X D, CAO J, et al.Interference Analysis of Top Tensioned Risers for Tension Leg Platform under Wave and Current[J]. Ocean Engineering Equipment and Technology, 2015, 2(2): 84-87.
[5] LIU G J, LI H Y, XIE Y C, et al.Investigating Cross-Flow Vortex-Induced Vibration of Top Tension Risers with Different Aspect Ratios[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2021, 221: 108497.
[6] LEIRA B J, HOLMAS T, HERFJORD K.Probabilistic Modeling and Analysis of Riser Collision[C]// Proceedings of the ASME 2002.[s. l.]: ASME , 2002.
[7] LEIRA B J, HOLMAS T, HERFJORD K.Probabilistic Analysis and Design in Relation to Riser—Riser Collision[C]// Proceedings of the Twelfth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference.[s. l.]: International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers, 2002.
[8] FU P, LEIRA B J, MYRHAUG D.Reliability Analysis of Wake-Induced Collision of Flexible Risers[J]. Applied Ocean Research, 2017, 62: 49-56.
[9] DUGGAL A S, NIEDZWECKI J M.Probabilistic Collision Model for a Pair of Flexible Cylinders[J]. Applied Ocean Research, 1994, 16(3): 165-175.
[10] 杨伟, 孙国民, 杨琥, 等. 基于静动态分析的顶张紧立管干涉敏感性研究[J]. 海洋工程装备与技术, 2016, 3(4): 243-250.
YANG W, SUN G M, YANG H, et al.Interference Sensitivity Research of Top Tensioned Riser Based on Static and Dynamic Analysis[J]. Ocean Engineering Equipment and Technology, 2016, 3(4): 243-250.
[11] GU H L, GUO H Y, BAI F T, et al.Study on the Collision Probability of Vertical Risers Considering the Wake Interference Effect[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2022, 245: 110583.
[12] QU Y, WANG P G, FU S X, et al.Vortex-Induced Vibrations of a Top Tensioned Riser Subjected to Flows with Spanwise Varying Directions[J]. International Journal of Mechanical Sciences, 2023, 242: 107954.
[13] 陈炉云, 韦克龙. 考虑复杂预应力的深海立管参激稳定性[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2018, 52(4): 395-402.
CHEN L Y, WEI K L.Parametric Stability for Deep-Sea Marine Riser under Consideration of Complex Pre-Stress Force Distribution[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2018, 52(4): 395-402.
[14] 袁昱超, 薛鸿祥, 唐文勇. 计及平台垂荡的立管涡激振动模拟与试验验证[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2019, 53(4): 480-487.
YUAN Y C, XUE H X, TANG W Y.Numerical Simulation and Experimental Verification of Vortex-Induced Vibration for Risers after Considering Platform Heave Motion[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2019, 53(4): 480-487.
[15] WANG Y, LI P, LIU Y, et al.Experimental Investigation on the Vortex-Induced Vibration of a Three-Riser Group Coupling Interference Effect[J]. Journal of Sound and Vibration, 2021, 491: 115740.
[16] QU Y, FU S X, WANG P G, et al.Cross-Flow Vortex-Induced Vibrations of a Top Tensioned Riser Subjected to Boundary Disturbances with Frequencies Close to Vortex Shedding[J]. Applied Ocean Research, 2023, 138: 103659.
[17] ZHAO B, FU S X, DENG P Q, et al.Frequency-Domain Prediction Method for Vortex/Wake-Induced Vibrations of Double Flexible Risers in Tandem Arrangements[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2024, 297: 116942.
[18] DENG S, ZHONG W J, YANG X L, et al.Experimental and Numerical Study of the Hydrodynamic Features of a Cylindrical FPSO Considering Current-Induced Motion[J]. Ocean Engineering, 2022, 262: 112263.
[19] ZHAO W W, YANG X L, WAN D C.Numerical Analysis of Coupled Sloshing and Motion of a Cylindrical FPSO in Regular Waves[J]. Journal of Hydrodynamics, 2024, 36(3): 457-465.
[20] KAYMAZ I, MCMAHON C A.A Response Surface Method Based on Weighted Regression for Structural Reliability Analysis[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2005, 20(1): 11-17.
[21] NGUYEN X S, SELLIER A, DUPRAT F, et al.Adaptive Response Surface Method Based on a Double Weighted Regression Technique[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2009, 24(2): 135-143.
[22] LU C, FENG Y W, FEI C W.Weighted Regression-Based Extremum Response Surface Method for Structural Dynamic Fuzzy Reliability Analysis[J]. Energies, 2019, 12(9): 1588.
[23] MOUSTAPHA M, MARELLI S, SUDRET B.Active Learning for Structural Reliability: Survey, General Framework and Benchmark[J]. Structural Safety, 2022, 96: 102174.
[24] ZHOU T, GUO T, DONG Y, et al.Look-Ahead Active Learning Reliability Analysis Based on Stepwise Margin Reduction[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2024, 243: 109830.
[25] 邹佳辉, 王琳, 丁果林, 等. 改进Monte Carlo与自适应响应面法对导管架的耦合算法[J]. 船舶工程, 2025, 47(S1): 764-769.
ZOU J H, WANG L, DING G L, et al.Improved Monte Carlo and Adaptive Response Surface Method Coupling Algorithm for Jacket Platform[J]. Ship Engineering, 2025, 47(S1): 764-769.
[26] 杨伟, 孙国民, 杨琥, 等. 立管尾流模型研究及其在顶张紧立管干涉分析中的应用[J]. 海洋工程装备与技术, 2016, 3(1): 1-7.
YANG W, SUN G M, YANG H, et al.Riser Wake Model and Its Application in TTR Interference Analysis[J]. Ocean Engineering Equipment and Technology, 2016, 3(1): 1-7.
[27] DNV. DNV-RP-F203 Riser Interference[S]. Høvik: Det Norske Veritas, 2019.